DBP Newsletter #19
Houston Notes
“You go from some of the most special moments in the tournament to the most heartbreaking loss. I’m not about to feel sorry for one second. These guys have done an incredible job. It’s heartbreaking. It’s incredibly disappointing. There’s a lot of pain that comes with this. That’s what this tournament is all about. You’re an inch away from the National Championship game.” - Coach Scheyer
Each year, college basketball seasons come to a brutal end for every team except one. It’s why winning the NCAA Tournament is the hardest title to claim in sports.1 And it’s why, as a fan, I never take tournament appearances, Sweet Sixteens, Elite Eights, or Final Fours for granted. I’ll write some more on the 2024-2025 Duke Blue Devils in the coming days but, for now, it’s important to acknowledge a few things:
1 - This Duke team was a joy to pull for - they were tough, together, versatile, balanced, skilled, and competitive. I loved watching them play, and I feel terrible for the guys. This team was definitely deserving of a chance to play for the National Championship.
2 - Houston is an excellent, veteran team. Credit the Cougars for finding a way to advance, and best wishes to Coach Sampson and his team Monday night.
3 - Although most analysis will focus on a few specific plays, the momentum and outcome of this game was not determined by a single play, or even a handful of plays. There were 61 possessions in the game last night, with the two teams separated by just 0.05 points-per-possession. Every single possession mattered.2
4 - While the outcome versus Houston was disappointing, Duke’s season was not a disappointment - far from it. Despite the immediate heartbreak, at some point I hope Coach Scheyer and his team will also feel tremendous pride in one of the best Duke seasons ever.
Notes
Duke generated 0.78 points-per-shot inside the arc, their second lowest two-point efficiency of the season.3
Fast break points: Duke 0 Houston 0. Neither team even had a shot attempt in transition.
Houston was +11 on the glass (42-31), just the third Duke opponent on the season to post a rebounding margin greater than +5.4
Houston outscored Duke by a combined 16 points (22-6) over the last two minutes of each half.5
Duke scored 9 points over the final 10:31, including just one made field goal.
Duke led for 34:54, including 19:27 in the second half. The win probability chart is gut wrenching.
Thanks for reading and, as always, Go Duke!
…in my opinion.
Points-per-possession:
Duke (1.10 ppp)
Houston (1.15 ppp)
Duke season-lows in two-point efficiency:
at Clemson (0.77 pps)
vs. Houston (0.78 pps)
vs. George Mason (0.83 pps)
Opponent season-highs in rebounding margin:
Clemson (+13)
Houston (+11)
Kansas (+6)
1st Half - Final 2:07: Duke 3 Houston 9
2nd Half - Final 2:05: Duke 3 Houston 13
Sources