DBP Newsletter #4
Shot Charts & Dimes
Shot Charts
Through four games, 48.3% of Duke’s field goal attempts have come from three-point range (129 3PA vs. 138 2PA). The sample size remains small but, for context, Duke’s three-point attempt percentage (3PA%) was 37.5% last season and 35.3% in 2022-2023. In fact, only one Duke team has ever attempted more than 40% of their shots from beyond the arc (41.8% in 2000-2001).1 Opposing defensive schemes and specific match-ups will influence shot selection from game to game, but the distribution so far indicates an emphasis on three-pointers and attempts in the paint - and I love it.
vs. Wofford: 61.3% 3PA% | (3P: 16/38 2P: 14/24)
vs. Kentucky: 33.8% 3PA% | (3P: 4/24 2P: 24/47)
vs. Army: 53.5% 3PA% | (3P: 17/38 2P: 18/33)
vs. Maine: 46.0% 3PA% | (3P: 11/29 2P: 24/34)
Assists
Coach Scheyer was pleased with how well Duke shared the ball against Wofford and, as he has often done, emphasized the value of paint touches in putting pressure on the defense, saying “…you can pass it, but if you don’t make the defense help or commit, what advantage do you get?” The Blue Devils assisted on 24 of 30 made field goals (80%), marking the highest assist rate since I began tracking stats in Coach Scheyer’s first season. Watch as Duke continually attacks the paint to create scoring opportunities. Tyrese and Sion make multiple paint drives, leading to a drop off for Maliq and then a lob to Khaman. Cooper uses a re-screen on the ball to drive and dish to Pat Ngongba (great to see him on the floor). After getting his feet onto the ACC logo, Coop finds Caleb in the left corner (twice) and Kon out top. The outlier is Pat posting up on the left block - it’s not a drive, but he works into the paint and finds Tyrese in the opposite corner.
Here are few more assists - again, these come from paint touches and putting the defense into rotation, but I particularly like the extra passes. While only one guy gets credit on the stat sheet, watch the passes leading to the assist (hockey assists). Maliq could force up a shot or try to get fouled in the lane, but instead he finds the next open man both times - same with Khaman. Then, Caleb is being denied the ball, so Kon passes to Khaman at the elbow, who immediately executes a hand-off screen and roll with Caleb. Khaman’s man is forced to help on the ball, leading to the lob dunk.
Notes
Duke rookies Jared McCain and Kyle Filipowski are coming off the best stretches of their young NBA careers. McCain has put up 20+ points in five consecutive games, including this 34 point/10 assist double-double, while shooting 43.3% from three-point range in November. Filipowski is shooting 55.2% from the field on the year, and went for 18 points and 6 rebounds last week against Phoenix. Over his last six games, Flip is averaging 10.8 points/5.3 rebounds/3.4 assists in 25.8 minutes per game.
Shout out to Chris Paul, who recently notched his 12,000th career assist, becoming just the third player in NBA history to eclipse the 12k mark. Paul (12,022) trails only Jason Kidd (12,091) and John Stockton (15,806) on the all-time list. Congrats to CP3 on what has been a fantastic career dating back to his days at Wake Forest - and no, Stockton’s number is not a typo.2
In the first of two games out west, Duke will visit Arizona on Friday night (11/22). The Wildcats are the best rebounding team in the country so far, averaging a +24.3 per game margin on the glass, with a 50% offensive rebound rate.
Thanks for reading, Go Duke!
Duke’s highest 3PA% seasons: 41.8% (2001); 39.9% (2016); 39.8% (2005); 39.7% (2014). Ken Pom data dates back to 1997.
Top 10 in NBA career assists: John Stockton (15,806); Jason Kidd (12,091); Chris Paul (12,022); LeBron James (11,129); Steve Nash (10,335); Mark Jackson (10,334); Magic Johnson (10,141); Oscar Robertson (9,887); Russell Westbrook (9,546); Isaiah Thomas (9,061)
Correction: DBP Newsletter #3 incorrectly stated that Duke’s 0.52 PPS from three was their lowest since November of 2023. This is now corrected to November 2022 on the post, and a correction was also issued via dukebballproj on Instagram - my apologies.
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