DBR Newsletter #105
Sweet Sixteen & Elite Eight
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Key Stats
Duke 80 St. John’s 75
Total Possessions: 64
Duke Pts/Possession: 1.25 ppp
St. John’s Pts/Possession: 1.17 ppp
Duke OReb Rate: 41.4%
St. John’s OReb Rate: 26.3%
Duke 72 Connecticut 73
Total Possessions: 63
Duke Pts/Possession: 1.16 ppp
UConn Pts/Possession: 1.15 ppp
Duke TO Rate: 20.6%
UConn TO Rate: 7.9%
Full Game Stats: Duke Basketball Reference Season Stats
Notes
Duke trailed 45-55 at the 15:05 mark of the second half before outscoring St. John’s 35-20 the rest of the way. St. John’s made 9 of their 13 three-pointers in the first half. The Blue Devils won the glass 40-27 for a 15-6 advantage in second chance points.
Points off turnovers:
1st half - Duke 7 UConn 4
2nd half - Duke 0 UConn 16
Second chance points:
1st half - Duke 14 UConn 7
2nd half - Duke 2 UConn 8
Offensive Rebounds:
1st half - Duke 8 UConn 7
2nd half - Duke 2 UConn 6
Fast break points:
1st half - Duke 6 UConn 2
2nd half - Duke 2 UConn 10
Three-point shooting:
1st half - Duke (5 for 11) UConn (1 for 11)
2nd half - Duke (1 for 4) UConn (4 for 12)
After starting the game 1 for 18 from three-point range, the Huskies went 4 for 5 in the final 7:00. Duke managed just 28 points after halftime, posting below 30 points in a half for only the third time all season.
Be wary of what you read and listen to following this game - I’m not saying don’t consume it if you want, just try to maintain the full picture. Throughout my writing, I’ve been consistent with the fact that everyone is entitled to their opinion and there will be tons of them, especially regarding the final 10 seconds. Here’s mine: please remember there were 63 possessions Sunday afternoon and every single one mattered. The final play was poorly executed by Duke, and everyone involved knows what should have been done differently. You also have to give Braylon Mullins credit for making the shot from just inside half-court - a miss from that deep and Duke wins. I’ve deliberately stayed away from opining in the newsletter this year, choosing to stick to only stats and analysis of the final game book (trends, notes, etc.) - but if you want to put the final sequence under a microscope, please do so for the rest of the game too.
Afterwards, Coach Scheyer said “It's easy to look at that play - I look at every play that happened, especially in that second half, this is not about one play. It's about every play that put us in that position, and that's what you don't want to do, where one play something could happen. For me, look, it's going to be tough, but it's not going to be on one play.” A number of factors within Duke’s control led to the possibility of a miracle ending - shot selection to close the first half and second half turnovers for example. Duke also made a number of clutch plays to maintain the lead all the way to the end, such as Nik Khamenia’s triple or Cam Boozer’s final bucket in the lane.1 And credit Connecticut on a number of things that made it difficult for Duke in the second half, including their rebounding, physicality, and three-point shooting down the stretch. Congrats to Coach Hurley and his team.
The final thing that gets lost in these Monday morning discussions is the people aspect. The NCAA Tournament is the most heartbreaking sporting event for every team but one. As a fan, I don’t ever feel disappointment for myself after a season-ending loss - nothing happened to me personally. I simply feel terrible for the Duke locker room and all the guys, both players and coaches - they gave everything they had all season long.
Here’s Jon Scheyer with Tracy Wolfson after the game:
Thanks for reading, Go Duke!
The shot selection, turnovers, and two clutch plays I mentioned are only intended to serve as examples - other areas could have been better too, and every single Duke player made winning plays yesterday as well.