DBR Newsletter #79
vs. WCU, at Army, vs. Indiana St.
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First Half Runs
Duke put together extended first half scoring runs in each of the last three games. Trailing 4-0 at the 18:24 mark, Duke outscored Western Carolina 25-2 over the next 9:29. The Blue Devils used two first half runs at Army, combining to outscore the Black Knights 29-6 over a total of 7:56. And down 14-4 against Indiana State just 3:21 into the game, Duke went on a 22-3 run over the next 7:56. If you’re counting, that’s 76-11 in favor of the Blue Devils in 25:21.
Key Stats1
Duke 95 Western Carolina 54
Total Possessions: 76
Duke Pts/Possession: 1.25 ppp
WCU Pts/Possession: 0.71 ppp
Duke Line Points: 55 pts
WCU Line Points: 18 pts
Differential: +37
Duke FT Rate: 51.6%
WCU FT Rate: 15.3%
Duke 114 Army 59
Total Possessions: 77
Duke Pts/Possession: 1.48 ppp
Army Pts/Possession: 0.77 ppp
Duke Line Points: 72 pts
Army Line Points: 41 pts
Differential: +31
Duke FT Rate: 44.6%
Army FT Rate: 14.3%
Duke 100 Indiana State 62
Total Possessions: 77
Duke Pts/Possession: 1.30 ppp
Indiana State Pts/Possession: 0.81 ppp
Duke OR %: 48.5%
Indiana State OR %: 23.8%
Duke Pts in the Paint: 54 pts
Indiana State Pts in the Paint: 26 pts
Differential: +28
Here’s the link to my full sheet with every statistical category tracked:
Duke Basketball Reference Season Stats
Shot Data
Four games is still a small sample size, particularly for shooting percentage, but I do find value in looking at where Duke shooting from on the floor so far this season. The Blue Devils are attempting 86.5% of their shots either at-the-rim or from three-point range (combined 54.5 attempts per 40 minutes), with an overall effective field goal percentage of 59.3%. Meanwhile, Duke’s effective field goal defense currently ranks #6 overall per KenPom (again, small sample) - opponents have a 38.1% eFG on the season. Here are the full shot region charts, courtesy of CBB Analytics.2
Lineups
Coach Scheyer continues to experiment with different five-man lineups, and mentioned after the Indiana State game how beneficial it has been for Duke to be able to spread out the minutes, noting “…you see guys blossoming and improving in such a short period of time. And so I think for our guys, game to game, their ability to maybe not play their best or play as well, and come back the next game and address those things - I think these guys have been great at that…I love coaching them.”
Only two lineups have appeared in all four games, with 11 lineup combinations logging at least four minutes so far this season. Duke’s four best lineups in terms of plus/minus over the four games are (approximate minutes):
1-Foster / 3-Evans / 7-Sarr / 12-Boozer / 21-Ngongba: +25 (37 min)
2-Boozer / 14-Khamenia / 7-Sarr / 6-Brown / 12-Boozer: +18 (5 min)
1-Foster / 2-Boozer / 14-Khamenia / 12-Boozer / 21-Ngongba: +15 (6 min)
1-Foster / 3-Evans / 7-Sarr / 6-Brown / 12-Boozer: +10 (7 min)
Notes
Cameron Boozer matched the second most points in a game by a Duke freshman with 35 points against Indiana State - along with 12 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks, and 3 steals. Here are the top-nine scoring games by a Duke freshman:3
Cooper Flagg (42 points vs. Notre Dame); Cameron Boozer (35 points vs. Indiana State); Jared McCain (35 points at FSU); Zion Williamson (35 points vs. Syracuse); Marvin Bagley (34 points vs. Texas); J.J. Redick (34 points vs. Virginia); Marvin Bagley (33 points vs. Notre Dame); RJ Barrett (33 points vs. UNC); RJ Barrett (33 points vs. Kentucky)
West Point honored Coach K before the game on Veteran’s Day, adding a banner in Christl Arena to honor their former player and head coach as the all-time wins leader. In case you missed it:
Thanks for reading, Go Duke!
Line Points = Pts from 3 + Pts from FT
FT Rate = FTA / FGA
For context, Duke’s FGA% on at the rim and three-pointers (ATR + 3s) the past three seasons has been: 77.5% (‘24-’25), 69.5% (‘23-’24), 68.6% (‘22-’23). Duke ranked #1 in eFG% defense last season at 44.4%. One last time, still a small sample size on the current season.
I initially planned to list all the 30-point games by a freshman, but that list was longer than I thought - so cutting it off at 33 points gave me the top-nine. Five freshman have scored 32 points, five freshman have scored 31 points, and 13 freshman have scored 30 points in a game.