DBR Newsletter #98
vs. Michigan
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Key Stats
Duke 68 Michigan 63
Total Possessions: 62
Duke Pts/Possession: 1.10 ppp
Michigan Pts/Possession: 1.02 ppp
Duke OReb Rate: 39.4%
Michigan OReb Rate: 22.2%
Duke Pts in the Paint: 34 pts
Michigan Pts in the Paint: 24 pts
Full Game Stats: Duke Basketball Reference Season Stats
Notes
Duke rebounded nearly 40% of their misses for an 18-11 advantage in second chance points. The Blue Devils won the glass 41-28 overall, with Cam Boozer (10 rebs) and Nik Khamenia (9 rebs) leading the way.1
Duke outscored the Wolverines 20-8 in paint points after halftime, leading to a +10 advantage for the game. In a contest between the top-two defensive teams per KenPom, Duke’s slight edge in paint efficiency was one key difference. The Blue Devils shot 17 for 29 inside the paint (1.17 pps), compared to 12 for 23 for Michigan (1.04 pps).2
Michigan used a 7-0 run to cut Duke’s lead to 57-56 at the 3:24 media timeout. Duke often sets flare (fade) screens, and subsequent re-screens, for Isaiah Evans - but out of the timeout, Coach Scheyer varied this action slightly. Caleb enters the ball to Pat in the right slot - Foster (wing) and Sarr (corner) occupy space on the ball-side. Evans is at the top as Boozer comes to set the familiar flare screen, and notice how the bigs for Michigan are forced to the perimeter with Boozer and Ngongba outside the arc. Instead of fading or getting a re-screen from Cam, Isaiah curls to the basket. As the clip freezes, Johnson (#21) stays with Boozer and McKenney (#1) wisely chases over-the-top to prevent a three-point attempt from Evans. With the lane open, Isaiah is able to get to the rim for the dunk - and credit Pat for the precise alley-oop pass.3
Duke’s best lineups in plus/minus against Michigan:
1-Foster / 3-Evans / 7-Sarr / 12-Boozer / 21-Ngongba (+8 in 8:03)
2-Boozer / 7-Sarr / 12-Boozer / 14-Khamenia / 21-Ngongba (+6 in 6:39)
1-Foster / 2-Boozer / 6-Brown / 12-Boozer / 14-Khamenia (+5 in 1:41)
Thanks for reading, Go Duke!
Khamenia matched his career-high in rebounds (9 at Michigan State). Three more guys had at least three boards: Ngongba (6 reb), Foster (4 reb), and Brown (3 reb).
Second half paint shooting: Duke 10 for 18 (1.11 pps); Michigan 4 for 10 (0.80 pps)
KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency (including yesterday): Michigan (89.1); Duke (89.6); Arizona (89.6); Florida (91.5); Nebraska (91.9)
Per CBB Analytics, Duke currently averages 1.15 points-per-chance after timeouts (99th percentile).