DBP Newsletter #1
Friday, November 1, 2024
Duke in the NBA
The NBA season kicked off a couple of weeks ago with 24 former Blue Devils on 18 different rosters throughout the league.1 On opening night, Jayson Tatum received his championship ring and proceeded to silence any questions about his shooting, going for 37 points including 8 of 11 from three-point range. I thought Tatum handled his lack of playing time in the Olympics like a professional, and through five games, JT is averaging 30 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Paolo Banchero put up a career-high 50 points on Monday against the Pacers, along with 13 rebounds and 9 assists (he won’t turn 22 years old for a couple more weeks). Teammate Wendell Carter logged a 10 point, 11 rebound double-double the same night, and the Duke duo will be part of a fun Orlando Magic team looking to build off last season’s playoff appearance. Unfortunately, the update as of this morning is that Banchero will be out indefinitely with a torn oblique and reevaluated in four to six weeks - wishing Paolo a speedy recovery.
First-year head coach JJ Redick and the Los Angeles Lakers won their first three games, before dropping the last two as they begin a short road trip. I didn’t overreact at 3-0, and I won’t at 3-2 either, but what I will be doing is pulling for JJ all season. Defensively, the Lakers are currently switching on pick-and-roll more than any other team in the league (~39%), and I look forward to seeing how JJ evolves their system throughout the year on both ends of the floor. Watching LeBron in year 22 will be pretty cool also.
Brotherhood Podcast
I loved listening to Coach Carrawell on The Brotherhood Podcast. C-Well talks about his decision to commit to Duke, what makes a good player development program, the 1999 team, and the Red Hot Chili Peppers. When asked about his advice to guys wanting to make it to the NBA, Carrawell said “...and I’m saying this to guys that’s not even here - don’t rush it, don’t rush the process. If you got to get stronger, get stronger. If you got to become a better shooter, better ball handler, better defender here in college - stay. What’s the rush?...Get as good as you can in college, and then when you get there, you go in ready.” Here’s the full podcast.
Preseason Rankings
I don’t put much time into analyzing the rankings throughout the year, especially preseason rankings. But the polls are never going away and, even though no one has played a game yet, fans do like to see where their team is projected. The Blue Devils slot in at #7 in the AP Poll, #5 in the USA Today/Coaches Poll, and #2 on KenPom.com. Ken Pomeroy’s analytics project a +26.54 net rating for Duke, with a 25-6 regular season and a 16-4 record in the ACC - we’ll check in on these as the regular season winds down. While the non-analytical part of basketball is still what I love most, and I don’t believe stats tell the full story, I’ve started to rely more on analytics to help me understand certain trends and to provide additional context for analysis. Here is Ken’s recent article on how his preseason ratings have fared historically.
Exhibitions
With a 107-56 win over Lincoln (PA) and a 103-47 win over Arizona State, Duke finished their preseason schedule on Sunday.2 The Blue Devils shared the ball well during their two exhibitions, tallying 25 assists in each game for a combined assist rate of 66.7% (50 assists on 75 made field goals). Despite going 2 for 11 from beyond the arc in the first half against ASU, Duke was a combined 32 for 71 on three-pointers for 1.35 points-per-shot. Coach Scheyer used two different starting lineups, and ten players logged double-figure minutes in both games. When asked about Duke’s depth after the Lincoln contest, Scheyer responded “As a coach, it's part of the blessing. It's also the hard part, where everybody wants to play. And you can't play everybody, right? But what I can tell you is, the guys that will end up playing are rewarded by what they do in practice. And it's not going to be based on recruiting rankings. It's not going to be based on mock drafts, or it's not based on any of that. It's based on what makes Duke the best right now, and what you've earned. And then, obviously, at the same time, you're still building for the big picture. So, Khaman's a great example. I thought Khaman had a really good game today. Six offensive rebounds, he protected the rim. He's not close to the player that he's going to become. So, for us as a team, the challenge is, how can we grow as much as we possibly can and at the same time still be at our best for the moment?”
And, of course, I have to mention how cool it was to see Bobby Hurley back at Duke for the first time in 30 years. Even though his #11 hangs in the Cameron rafters and his 1,076 assists is still the NCAA record, Hurley’s career at Duke is somehow still underrated.
Game Clips
I’m always interested to see what a team runs in the early stages of a game, so I took a look at Duke’s offense early on against Arizona State. Here are three different screening actions to watch for as the season gets started.
Khaman Maluach sets a ball screen for Cooper Flagg. As the clip freezes, watch both ASU defenders tag Khaman on the roll, giving Coop an angle to attack the basket. The other three defenders don’t provide additional help because shooters (Foster, Knueppel, Proctor) are spaced around the three-point line.
Khaman and Cooper run the same ball screen again, but on the other side of the floor. This time, watch both ASU defenders stay with Cooper. With two defenders on the ball, Khaman ghosts (or slips) the screen and receives the pass at the rim. Caleb Foster’s defender attempts to help on Khaman but doesn’t get there in time. If the help had come earlier, Flagg could swing to Foster - forcing the lone defender left on that side to choose between Foster and Knueppel.
In this clip, Maluach sets a pin down screen for Kon Knueppel in the left corner. The defender trails the play, so Kon curls off the screen and receives the pass from Mason Gillis. Maluach’s man helps up to Kon at the elbow, putting two defenders on the ball and leaving Khaman open for the dunk. Again, shooters (Proctor, James, Gillis) are spaced beyond the arc.
All three clips illustrate the value of creating two on one situations - two defenders tag Khaman on the roll, two defenders trap Cooper on the ball screen, and two defenders meet Kon off the curl. Away from the action, this leaves four Duke players to three ASU defenders.
I am so pumped for the season, and can’t wait to watch this team develop over the course of the year.
Thanks for reading, Go Duke!
Grayson Allen (Phoenix); Marvin Bagley III (Washington); Paolo Banchero (Orlando); RJ Barrett (Toronto); Wendell Carter Jr. (Orlando); Seth Curry (Charlotte); Kyle Filipowski (Utah); Brandon Ingram (New Orleans); Kyrie Irving (Dallas); Jalen Johnson (Atlanta); Tre Jones (San Antonio); Tyus Jones (Phoenix); Luke Kennard (Memphis); Dereck Lively II (Dallas); Jared McCain (Philadelphia); Wendell Moore Jr. (Detroit); Mason Plumlee (Phoenix); Cam Reddish (LA Lakers); D.J. Steward (Chicago); Jayson Tatum (Boston); Gary Trent Jr. (Milwaukee); Dariq Whitehead (Brooklyn); Mark Williams (Charlotte); Zion Williamson (New Orleans)