DBR Newsletter #77
Preseason reading & housekeeping
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Housekeeping
You may have noticed this latest newsletter was delivered to your inbox from Duke Basketball Reference instead of The Duke Basketball Project. I’ve been considering this change for a little while, and recently began updating the site to reflect the new name. It’s still the Substack platform, but now I own the domain name dukebasketball-reference.com. It will take a little time to get everything updated but, most notably, I have all the old Quotes & Notes included with the DBP Newsletter from last year, making this my 77th newsletter covering the current Duke season.
I felt like Duke Basketball Reference was a more accurate name given my focus on the history of the Duke program, along with ACC and college basketball history as well. However, I do not intend to replicate Basketball Reference or Sports Reference in any way. If you’re looking to do research, those are the proper sites - ones I will continue to use often (in fact, there are three Sports Reference tabs open in my browser right now). As I mentioned late in the summer, I will focus more on stats and analytics for the newsletter, and I’m still planning to cut up some game clips throughout the season. I also hope to roll out some additional resources related to the new name.
Preseason Reading
If you’ve been a subscriber for a while, you may know that I’m not big on preseason rankings or projections. I believe basketball is both art and science, and I love the art of the game the most. But as I’ve become more familiar with certain analytics, I do find value in reading how the statistical simulations play out, while still understanding that successful basketball cannot be boiled down to stats alone.
Duke checks in at #7 in KenPom’s preseason rankings, with a +26.38 net rating and a projected regular season record of 24-7 (14-4). Pomeroy’s preseason rankings last year were as accurate as they’ve ever been, especially considering the dip in minutes continuity throughout college basketball.
KenPom mentions that his preseason top three (Houston, Duke, Auburn) all made the Final Four and spent the entire season in the top five, before noting “this will never happen again.” Here is his full preseason article.
I’ll also be using EvanMiya’s site this season, particularly for lineup data. Miyakawa has Duke at #3 in the preseason with a +26.5 net rating. I thought it was noteworthy how close the two projected net ratings are for Duke, along with seven teams appearing in both top tens.
Evan recently put out an article on his updated BPR player ratings, with a very technical explanation when it comes to the changes in his formula. If you’re unfamiliar, Miyakawa’s definition of BPR is “In a nutshell, Bayesian Performance Rating reflects the offensive and defensive value that a player brings to his team when he is on the court, on a per-possession basis.” While the technical details are complex, his updated BPR rankings for last season show Cooper Flagg (13.07), Johni Broome (11.24), Braden Smith (10.23), and Walter Clayton (9.80) at the top, which tracks with NPOY and All-American honors.1 He also shows the top 30 seasons in BPR dating back to 2010.2 Here is the full article.
Finally, I’ve been reading Brian Geisinger for a while now and wanted to share his preseason article on Duke’s 5-out offense with Cameron Boozer. Brian does a terrific job with his written breakdowns of game clips, providing insight into some offensive actions to watch for as the season tips-off. Here is the article, and I highly recommend subscribing to Brian’s “Split the Action” newsletter.
Five more days….
Thanks for reading, Go Duke!
All four players were consensus 1st Team All-Americans, and Cooper Flagg was the consensus National Player of the Year.
Dating back to 2010, three Duke players are in EvanMiya’s BPR top 30: #2 - Cooper Flagg (13.07 in ‘24-’25); #4 - Zion Williamson (12.83 in ‘18-’19); #11 - Jon Scheyer (11.32 in ‘09-’10).